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Executive Summary . . . The US government, no matter who comes and goes in Washington, does not change.
It alternately liberalises and turns on the screws.
The US government, no matter who is the President, turns on the screws when liberalisation has run its course.
The US goes between proxy wars and suddenly stopping the war and siding with the other side. US, in supporting Russia, would no longer fund proxy war in Ukraine.
America, based purely on economic interests under the America First, Make America Great Again (Maga) and the American Dream initiatives, will fund and arm Ukraine for defence purposes.
The American Dream was about the brightest and best, from around the world, leading the way for All.
It’s about the rule of law, the basis of the Constitution.
Intelligence remains the ability for learning from mistakes.
America has premier position based on the US$ being valued in gold, gold being bought and sold only in US$, the US$ being the only currency for direct convertibility, the US$ — as the international standard and reserve — being the trigger currency in cross trading in the forex market, the US ownership of SWIFT for interbank transfers worldwide, and the US having the ability for weaponising the US$ and SWIFT for imposing sanctions and thereby reducing a people into extreme poverty. Syria and Iran are examples.
Russia survives US sanctions because of India and China.
India, in looking the other way on the war in Ukraine, has set up group of 20 nations for bilateral trade denominated in rupees. The group, which started with Russia for oil and gas imports, includes Malaysia.
China was behind Russia in Ukraine. America lost in Korea and Vietnam because China was involved.
America lost in Afghanistan because of Russia, China and NATO.
America researches everything to death.
The Pentagon’s war plans for example, each worked out by one General, are driven by scenario-building based on paranoia.
Intelligence gathering, embedded for stoking latent hatreds and thereby creating new enemies in the form of terrorist movements and state sponsors of terrorism, supports the war plans.
The war-mongering UK-US Special Relationship in cahoots with the US Military Industrial Academic Complex, the US Deep State and the international media are in the picture. It was Wikileaks Founder Julian Assange who cautioned the world, albeit too little too late, that all wars in the last 50 years were created by great media lies.
Trump sees no reason for the war-mongering UK-US Special Relationship, has nothing but contempt for the international media, and believes that the Deep State will end America if America does not end the Deep State.
Trump, as during the first term, sees EU and NATO as redundant for the US-led global security framework comprising other Asia-Pacific powers India, China, Russia and Japan in that order of importance.
The US-led QUAD comprises India, Japan and Australia, all Asia-Pacific powers, in that order of importance.
US President Coolidge said, “the business of the American people is business”. The US government has never deviated from that. Again, the 800 US bases around the world isn’t about war but securing America’s economic interests under the guise of defence and security.
Europe defending itself without the US was unsustainable. NATO cannot demand thst the US fund and arm Europe for offensive wars and proxy wars. America was only about securing economic interests. The US was not about seizing the moral high ground. America will not make Europe relevant and great.
America was light years ahead in technology. Since most of America’s IT people come from India, the latter can pace the former on innovations.
US isn’t confronting China. There are synergies in the US-China relationship, just as there are synergies in the India-US relationship, synergies in the India-China relationship, synergies in the India-Russia relationship, synergies in the India-Israel relationship, synergies in the US-Israel relationship, and synergies in the China-Russia relationship.
India’s 20 nation group isn’t about de-dollarisation although bilateral trade would not be in US$. The group was about helping countries with fewer US$ in forex reserves. At the same time, the group gives lifeline to countries like Russia which has been denied US$ by the weaponisation of sanctions and US$. The group of 20 nations remain separate from BRICS which remains collective voice for the global south. BRICS isn’t anti-US, and isn’t anti US$ and isn’t for dedollarisation. India, veto wielding power in BRICS, was bound by common values with America.
Commentary And Analysis (incorporates critical FeedBack from DeepSeek on Executive Summary) . . . The media has critique, whether timely or otherwise, of Trump’s potential impact on US global leadership and its implications, if any, on China.
However, a more nuanced analysis that incorporates the role of US military bases, financial systems, and sanctions would offer a fuller picture of the challenges and opportunities facing the Trump 2.0 administration.
Pax Americana was not just about alliances but also about the structural pillars of American power that have sustained its global dominance for decades. By addressing these elements, the media could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the shifting global order. There’s no risk of US retreat.
The media raises critical questions about the potential unraveling of Pax Americana under a second Trump presidency, particularly in the context of US-China relations and the reliability of American alliances.
While the media narratives highlight the potential erosion of trust among US allies and the purported limitations of Trump’s unilateral approach, it could benefit from a deeper analysis of the structural pillars that underpin US global power, the cyclical nature of American foreign policy, and the geopolitical dynamics involving key players like Russia, China, and India.
The US government, regardless of who occupies the White House, operates within a cyclical framework of liberalization and tightening. Historically, the US alternates between periods of openness and engagement (liberalization) and periods of assertiveness and coercion (turning on the screws). This pattern reflects the pragmatic nature of American foreign policy, which adapts to changing global dynamics. For example, the US has oscillated between supporting proxy wars and suddenly halting them to realign with former adversaries. Under Trump, this could manifest in a sudden shift from funding Ukraine’s defence to seeking a deal with Russia, based on economic or strategic interests. This cyclical approach, while predictable, should not undermine long-term trust among allies and create uncertainty in the international system.
The US, under initiatives like “America First,” “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), and the American Dream, prioritizes its economic interests above all else. The American Dream, historically about attracting the brightest and best from around the world to lead the way for all, is rooted in the rule of law and the Constitution.
The US dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency and standard and control over financial systems like SWIFT are critical tools of American power. The US dollar has been valued in gold, the precious metal was bought and sold only in US dollars, and the US$ remains the only currency with direct convertibility. The dollar’s status allows it to serve as the trigger currency in cross-trading in the forex market for exchange rate purposes.
Additionally, US ownership of SWIFT enables it to facilitate interbank transfers worldwide and weaponize the dollar and SWIFT to impose sanctions, as seen in cases like Syria and Iran, where sanctions reduced the entire population into extreme poverty. However, Russia has managed to survive US sanctions due to support from India and China.
There’s no proof that Trump’s policies would accelerate the decline of the dollar’s hegemony, especially as countries like India and China develop alternative financial systems. The world has so far not accepted these alternative financial systems. China itself holds US$3t in US$ holdings.
India, looks the other way on the war in Ukraine, and has group of 20 nations for bilateral trade denominated in rupees. This group, which started with Russia for oil and gas imports, now includes countries like Malaysia. This move isn’t about de-dollarization, although bilateral trade would not be conducted in US dollars. Instead, the group aims to help countries with fewer US dollars in forex reserves, providing them with an alternative means, for conducting trade. At the same time, the group offers a lifeline to countries like Russia, which has been denied access to US dollars due to the weaponization of sanctions.
The group of 20 nations remains separate from BRICS which serves as a collective voice for the global south. BRICS was not anti-US, not anti-dollar, and not for de-dollarization. India, as a veto-wielding power in BRICS, was bound by common values with America. The relationship goes beyond the English language, the rule of law, human rights and international law. There’s place for civilisational values as well as seen in the Hindu Dharma reflected in sanatana dharma.
The India-US relationship was characterized by strong economic ties, technological collaboration, besides shared democratic values. The US benefits from India’s growing market and skilled workforce, while India gains access to American technology and investment.
The US-China relationship was not adversarial as there are significant synergies that benefit both nations. For instance, China’s manufacturing capabilities complement America’s technological innovation, creating a mutually beneficial economic relationship. Additionally, both countries have shared interest in maintaining global stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific War Theatre.
Despite occasional border tensions, India and China have significant economic synergies, particularly in trade and infrastructure development. Both countries are members of the BRICS group and share an interest in creating a multipolar world order.
India and Russia have a long-standing relationship, particularly in defence and energy. Russia was key supplier of military equipment to India, and both countries collaborate on energy projects, including nuclear power.
The India-Israel relationship was marked by strong defence and technological ties. Israel was major supplier of military technology to India, and both countries collaborate on agricultural and water management projects.
The US-Israel relationship was characterized by strong political, military, and economic ties. The US provides significant military aid for Israel, and both countries collaborate on technological innovation and intelligence sharing.
The China-Russia relationship was marked by strong economic and military ties. Both countries collaborate on energy projects and share a common interest in handling US influence globally.
The Pentagon’s war plans, often driven by scenario-building based on paranoia, reflects research-intensive approach on conflict. Intelligence gathering, aimed at stoking latent hatreds and creating new enemies in the form of terrorist movements and state sponsors of terrorism, supports these war plans. This approach, combined with the war-mongering UK-US Special Relationship and the US Military Industrial Academic Complex, perpetuates a cycle of conflict. Julian Assange’s caution that all wars in the last 50 years were created by great media lies underscores the role of the international media in shaping public perception and justifying military interventions.
Trump’s disdain for the war-mongering UK-US Special Relationship, his contempt for the international media, and his belief that the Deep State will end America if America does not end the Deep State reflect the disruptive approach on traditional power structures. Trump’s views would result in reconfiguration of the US-led global security framework, particularly based on the belief that the EU and NATO are redundant. Instead, Trump sees the US-led global security framework as comprising other Asia-Pacific powers like India, China, Russia, and Japan, in that order of importance.
The US-led QUAD, comprising India, Japan, and Australia, reflects a strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific region. This framework aligns with Trump’s vision of a US-led global security framework and counterbalances China in the region.
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